diff --git a/compiler/src/dotty/tools/dotc/core/TypeComparer.scala b/compiler/src/dotty/tools/dotc/core/TypeComparer.scala
index e8c05f7bc6c0..e7afbead1000 100644
--- a/compiler/src/dotty/tools/dotc/core/TypeComparer.scala
+++ b/compiler/src/dotty/tools/dotc/core/TypeComparer.scala
@@ -1823,6 +1823,19 @@ class TypeComparer(@constructorOnly initctx: Context) extends ConstraintHandling
     def paramBounds(tparam: Symbol): TypeBounds =
       tparam.info.substApprox(tparams2.asInstanceOf[List[Symbol]], args2).bounds
 
+    /** Does `bound` refer to `tparam`? Keeps the widening branches below off a
+     *  recursive `paramBounds(tparam)`; `LazyRef` counts as recursive to avoid
+     *  forcing class-header initialization.
+     */
+    def hasRecursiveBound(bound: Type, tparam: Symbol): Boolean =
+      val acc = new TypeAccumulator[Boolean]:
+        def apply(x: Boolean, tp: Type): Boolean =
+          x || (tp match
+            case _: LazyRef => true
+            case tp: TypeRef => tp.symbol eq tparam
+            case _ => foldOver(x, tp))
+      acc(false, bound)
+
     /** Test all arguments. Incomplete argument tests (according to isIncomplete) are deferred in
      *  the first run and picked up in the second.
      */
@@ -1890,10 +1903,16 @@ class TypeComparer(@constructorOnly initctx: Context) extends ConstraintHandling
                 // The captured reference could be illegal and cause a
                 // TypeError to be thrown in argDenot
                 false
-            else if (v > 0)
-              isSubType(paramBounds(tparam).hi, arg2)
-            else if (v < 0)
-              isSubType(arg2, paramBounds(tparam).lo)
+            // Existential widening (#16018): for covariant `F`, `F[? <: hi] <: F[hi]`
+            // (dually contravariant). Use the wildcard's own bound intersected
+            // (resp. unioned) with the declared one; recursive declared bounds
+            // stay on the conservative path.
+            else if v > 0 then
+              if hasRecursiveBound(tparam.info.bounds.hi, tparam) then false
+              else isSubType(arg1.hi & paramBounds(tparam).hi, arg2)
+            else if v < 0 then
+              if hasRecursiveBound(tparam.info.bounds.lo, tparam) then false
+              else isSubType(arg2, arg1.lo | paramBounds(tparam).lo)
             else
               false
           case _ =>
diff --git a/tests/neg/i16018.scala b/tests/neg/i16018.scala
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..4dbef902c9c8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/neg/i16018.scala
@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+// Fixes #16018: shapes that must stay rejected. The fix only widens
+// covariant + upper-bounded and contravariant + lower-bounded wildcards;
+// every other combination is unsound.
+object Test:
+
+  class Co[+T]
+  class Contra[-T]
+  class Inv[T]
+  trait Holder
+
+  // invariant never widens
+  def inv_upper[M](xs: Inv[? <: M]): Inv[M] = xs   // error
+  def inv_lower[M](xs: Inv[? >: M]): Inv[M] = xs   // error
+
+  // wrong-direction wildcards do not widen
+  def co_lower[M](xs: Co[? >: M]): Co[M] = xs             // error
+  def contra_upper[M](xs: Contra[? <: M]): Contra[M] = xs // error
+
+  // wildcard hi is wider than the target
+  def co_too_wide(xs: Co[? <: Any]): Co[Holder] = xs     // error
+
+  // boundary: the effective bound admits Holder, not a strict subtype
+  class Sub extends Holder
+  class CoBounded[+T <: Holder]
+  def co_boundary(xs: CoBounded[? <: Any]): CoBounded[Sub] = xs            // error
+  class Super
+  class HolderS extends Super
+  class ContraBounded[-T >: HolderS]
+  def contra_boundary(xs: ContraBounded[? >: Nothing]): ContraBounded[Super] = xs // error
+
+  // F-bounded (recursive) parameter stays on the conservative path
+  class FBounded[+T <: FBounded[T]]
+  def f_bounded[M <: FBounded[M]](xs: Co[FBounded[? <: M]]): Co[FBounded[M]] = xs // error
+
+  // per-position variance is still checked through HKT nesting
+  def fn_contra_upper[M, R](xs: Co[Function1[? <: M, R]]): Co[Function1[M, R]] = xs // error
+  def fn_co_lower[M, T1](xs: Co[Function1[T1, ? >: M]]): Co[Function1[T1, M]] = xs  // error
+  def inv_in_co[M](xs: Co[Inv[? <: M]]): Co[Inv[M]] = xs // error
diff --git a/tests/pos/i16018.scala b/tests/pos/i16018.scala
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..ae7523c17439
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/pos/i16018.scala
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+// Fixes #16018: existential widening for wildcard arguments.
+// Real-world reproductions: mbovel's minimization, a pure-Scala collection
+// (no capture conversion), and the original akka report (a Java-generic
+// argument re-projected as a Scala collection and `collect`-ed).
+import scala.collection.immutable
+
+object Test:
+
+  class Box[T](val value: T)
+  class Container[+S, +M]
+  class SubContainer[+S, +M] extends Container[S, M]
+
+  def f1[T](l: List[Box[? <: T]]): List[T] = l.map(_.value)
+
+  def f2[M](xs: immutable.Seq[Container[Any, ? <: M]]): immutable.Seq[Container[Any, M]] =
+    xs.collect {
+      case g: SubContainer[Any, M] @unchecked => g
+      case other                              => other
+    }
+
+  def seqOf[T](it: java.lang.Iterable[T]): immutable.Seq[T] = ???
+  def f3[M](xs: java.util.List[? <: Container[Any, ? <: M]]): immutable.Seq[Container[Any, M]] =
+    seqOf(xs).collect {
+      case g: SubContainer[Any, M] @unchecked => g
+      case other                              => other
+    }
+
+// The exact akka-minimized repro from the ticket (modulo `_` -> `?`).
+object Main:
+
+  class Source[+Out, +Mat] extends Graph[SourceShape[Out], Mat]
+  class Shape
+  class SourceShape[+T] extends Shape
+  class Graph[+S <: Shape, +M]
+
+  def immutableSeq[T](iterable: java.lang.Iterable[T]): immutable.Seq[T] = ???
+
+  def combine[T, U, M](sources: java.util.List[? <: Graph[SourceShape[T], ? <: M]])
+      : Source[U, java.util.List[M]] =
+    val seq: immutable.Seq[Graph[SourceShape[T], M]] =
+      if sources != null then
+        immutableSeq(sources).collect {
+          case source: Source[T, M] @unchecked => source
+          case other                           => other
+        }
+      else immutable.Seq()
+    ???
diff --git a/tests/pos/i16018b.scala b/tests/pos/i16018b.scala
new file mode 100644
index 000000000000..826a6a190745
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/pos/i16018b.scala
@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+// Fixes #16018: the existential-widening directions the fix legitimizes.
+// Covariant `F[? <: hi] <: F[hi]` and contravariant `G[? >: lo] <: G[lo]`,
+// the declared-bound intersection/union guard, and the same through HKT.
+object Test:
+
+  class Co[+T]
+  class Contra[-T]
+  trait Holder
+
+  def co_upper[M](xs: Co[? <: M]): Co[M] = xs
+  def contra_lower[M](xs: Contra[? >: M]): Contra[M] = xs
+
+  // wildcard hi (Any) intersected with the declared bound: Any & Holder = Holder
+  class CoBounded[+T <: Holder]
+  def co_declared_bound(xs: CoBounded[? <: Any]): CoBounded[Holder] = xs
+  // dual: wildcard lo (Nothing) unioned with the declared lower bound
+  class ContraBounded[-T >: Holder]
+  def contra_declared_bound(xs: ContraBounded[? >: Nothing]): ContraBounded[Holder] = xs
+
+  // mixed variance through HKT nesting
+  def fn_in_co[M, R](xs: Co[Function1[? >: M, R]]): Co[Function1[M, R]] = xs
+
+  // intersection and path-dependent upper bounds compose with the fix
+  trait A; trait B
+  def inter_upper(xs: Co[? <: A & B]): Co[A] = xs
+  trait Outer { type T }
+  def path_dep(o: Outer)(xs: Co[? <: o.T]): Co[o.T] = xs
+
+  // the recursive-bound guard rejects only self-referential bounds; an
+  // ordinary dependent bound still widens
+  class DepBound[+T <: U, U]
+  def acyclic_dependent[M](xs: DepBound[? <: M, M]): DepBound[M, M] = xs