issue/3887/feat/max-attainable-coverage

front_end/messages/cs.json

@@ -2081,5 +2081,6 @@
   "tournamentUnfollowModalSubmit": "Zrušit sledování",
   "switchBackToSlidersHint": "přepněte zpět na posuvníky pro plynulé přizpůsobení",
   "view": "Zobrazit",
+  "maxAttainableCoverageExplanation": "Otázky, které se vyřeší dříve, mají své skóre a pokrytí upravené, aby se zachovala správnost skóre. <link>Více se dozvíte zde.</link>",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20 000+ otevřených otázek"
 }

front_end/messages/en.json

@@ -242,6 +242,7 @@
   "communityRelativeLegacyScore": "Community Relative Legacy Score",
   "communityRelativeLegacyArchivedScore": "Community Relative Legacy Archived Score",
   "myCoverage": "My coverage",
+  "maxAttainableCoverageExplanation": "Questions that resolve early have their scores and coverage truncated to preserve score properness. <link>Learn more here.</link>",
   "myWeightedCoverage": "My weighted coverage",
   "questionWillOpenAt": "This question will open {{date}}.",
   "questionNotOpenYet": "This question is not yet open for predictions.",
@@ -1567,8 +1568,8 @@
   "participations": "Participations",
   "participationSummary": "Participation Summary",
   "participationSummaryPredictionNrStats": "You made <strong>{userUpdates} {userUpdates, plural, =0 {updates} =1 {update} other {updates} }</strong> vs. a community average of <strong>{communityUpdates} {communityUpdates, plural, =0 {updates} =1 {update} other {updates} }</strong>.",
-  "participationSummaryCoverageBetterStats": "Your coverage was <strong>{userCoverage}%</strong>, better than the average forecaster on this question (<strong>{averageCoverage}%</strong>).",
-  "participationSummaryCoverageWorseStats": "Your coverage was <strong>{userCoverage}%</strong>, worse than the average forecaster on this question (<strong>{averageCoverage}%</strong>).",
+  "participationSummaryCoverageBetterStats": "Your coverage was <strong>{userCoverage}%</strong><maxCoverageDisplay></maxCoverageDisplay>, better than the average forecaster on this question (<strong>{averageCoverage}%</strong>).",
+  "participationSummaryCoverageWorseStats": "Your coverage was <strong>{userCoverage}%</strong><maxCoverageDisplay></maxCoverageDisplay>, worse than the average forecaster on this question (<strong>{averageCoverage}%</strong>).",
   "participationSummaryScoreOutperformance": "Congrats, you <strong>outperformed the Community Prediction</strong> in {scoreTypes}.",
   "peer": "Peer",
   "bothPeerAndBaseline": "both Peer and Baseline Scores",

front_end/messages/es.json

@@ -2081,5 +2081,6 @@
   "tournamentUnfollowModalSubmit": "Dejar de Seguir",
   "switchBackToSlidersHint": "vuelve a los deslizadores para un ajuste suave",
   "view": "Ver",
+  "maxAttainableCoverageExplanation": "Las preguntas que se resuelven pronto tienen sus puntuaciones y cobertura truncadas para preservar la propiedad adecuada de la puntuación. <link>Aprende más aquí.</link>",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20,000+ preguntas abiertas"
 }

front_end/messages/pt.json

@@ -2079,5 +2079,6 @@
   "tournamentUnfollowModalSubmit": "Deixar de Seguir",
   "switchBackToSlidersHint": "volte para os controles deslizantes para um ajuste suave",
   "view": "Visualizar",
+  "maxAttainableCoverageExplanation": "Questões que são resolvidas cedo têm suas pontuações e coberturas truncadas para preservar a correção da pontuação. <link>Saiba mais aqui.</link>",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20.000+ perguntas abertas"
 }

front_end/messages/zh-TW.json

@@ -2078,5 +2078,6 @@
   "tournamentUnfollowModalSubmit": "取消關注",
   "switchBackToSlidersHint": "切換回滑桿以平滑調整",
   "view": "檢視",
+  "maxAttainableCoverageExplanation": "為了保持分數的正確性，早期解決的問題其分數和覆蓋率會被截斷。<link>在這裡了解更多。</link>",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20,000+ 開放問題"
 }

front_end/messages/zh.json

@@ -2083,5 +2083,6 @@
   "tournamentUnfollowModalSubmit": "取消关注",
   "switchBackToSlidersHint": "切回滑块以进行更精细的调整",
   "view": "查看",
+  "maxAttainableCoverageExplanation": "为确保分数的准确性，提前解决的问题，其分数和覆盖率会被截断。<link>在此了解更多信息。</link>",
   "thousandsOfOpenQuestions": "20,000+ 开放问题"
 }

front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/post_score_data/additional_scores_table.tsx

@@ -1,8 +1,11 @@
+import { faCircleInfo } from "@fortawesome/free-solid-svg-icons";
+import { FontAwesomeIcon } from "@fortawesome/react-fontawesome";
 import { isNil } from "lodash";
 import { useTranslations } from "next-intl";
-import React, { FC } from "react";
+import React, { FC, ReactNode } from "react";
 
 import SectionToggle from "@/components/ui/section_toggle";
+import Tooltip from "@/components/ui/tooltip";
 import { QuestionWithForecasts, ScoreData } from "@/types/question";
 import { TranslationKey } from "@/types/translations";
 import cn from "@/utils/core/cn";
@@ -14,8 +17,10 @@ type Props = {
   variant?: Variant;
 };
 
+type ScoreRow = { label: string; value: string; valueSuffix?: ReactNode };
+
 const ScoreTable: FC<{
-  rows: { label: string; value: string }[];
+  rows: ScoreRow[];
   className?: string;
   variant?: Variant;
 }> = ({ rows, className, variant = "auto" }) => (
@@ -42,11 +47,12 @@ const ScoreTable: FC<{
         </span>
         <span
           className={cn(
-            "w-[34%] pl-4 text-center text-base text-gray-800 dark:text-gray-800-dark",
+            "flex w-[34%] items-center justify-center gap-0.5 pl-4 text-center text-base text-gray-800 dark:text-gray-800-dark",
             { "sm:w-1/2": variant === "auto" }
           )}
         >
           {row.value}
+          {row.valueSuffix}
         </span>
       </div>
     ))}
@@ -77,6 +83,21 @@ const buildScoreLabelKey = (
   return (prefix + toCamel(key) + suffix) as TranslationKey;
 };
 
+/**
+ * Returns the max attainable peer coverage (0–1) for a question that resolved
+ * before its scheduled close time, or null if not applicable.
+ */
+const getMaxCoverage = (question: QuestionWithForecasts): number | null => {
+  const { open_time, actual_close_time, scheduled_close_time } = question;
+  if (!open_time || !actual_close_time || !scheduled_close_time) return null;
+  const open = new Date(open_time).getTime();
+  const actualClose = new Date(actual_close_time).getTime();
+  const scheduledClose = new Date(scheduled_close_time).getTime();
+  const totalDuration = scheduledClose - open;
+  if (totalDuration <= 0) return null;
+  return (actualClose - open) / totalDuration;
+};
+
 export const AdditionalScoresTable: FC<Props> = ({
   question,
   separateCoverage,
@@ -107,8 +128,41 @@ export const AdditionalScoresTable: FC<Props> = ({
     "weighted_coverage",
   ];
 
-  const coverageRows: { label: string; value: string }[] = [];
-  const otherRows: { label: string; value: string }[] = [];
+  // Peer coverage uses scheduled_close_time as total duration, so early
+  // resolution reduces the max attainable coverage.
+  const maxCoverage = getMaxCoverage(question);
+  let maxCoverageValueSuffix: ReactNode;
+  if (maxCoverage !== null) {
+    maxCoverageValueSuffix = (
+      <span className="text-sm text-gray-600 dark:text-gray-600-dark">
+        {" (max. "}
+        {(maxCoverage * 100).toFixed(1)}%
+        <Tooltip
+          tooltipContent={t.rich("maxAttainableCoverageExplanation", {
+            link: (chunks) => (
+              <a
+                href="https://www.metaculus.com/help/scores-faq/#score-truncation"
+                target="_blank"
+                rel="noopener noreferrer"
+                className="underline"
+              >
+                {chunks}
+              </a>
+            ),
+          })}
+        >
+          <FontAwesomeIcon
+            icon={faCircleInfo}
+            className="ml-0.5 cursor-help text-blue-500 dark:text-blue-500-dark"
+          />
+        </Tooltip>
+        {")"}
+      </span>
+    );
+  }
+
+  const coverageRows: ScoreRow[] = [];
+  const otherRows: ScoreRow[] = [];
 
   for (const key of scoreKeys) {
     if (key === peerKey || key === baselineKey) continue;
@@ -126,6 +180,8 @@ export const AdditionalScoresTable: FC<Props> = ({
       targetRows.push({
         label: t(buildScoreLabelKey(key, "user")),
         value: formattedValue,
+        // Only peer coverage (key === "coverage") is affected by early resolution
+        ...(key === "coverage" ? { valueSuffix: maxCoverageValueSuffix } : {}),
       });
     }
 

front_end/src/app/(main)/questions/[id]/components/post_score_data/participation_summary.tsx

@@ -1,10 +1,15 @@
 import { faClock } from "@fortawesome/free-regular-svg-icons";
-import { faFire, faRepeat } from "@fortawesome/free-solid-svg-icons";
+import {
+  faCircleInfo,
+  faFire,
+  faRepeat,
+} from "@fortawesome/free-solid-svg-icons";
 import { FontAwesomeIcon } from "@fortawesome/react-fontawesome";
 import { isNil } from "lodash";
 import { useTranslations } from "next-intl";
 import React, { PropsWithChildren, ReactNode } from "react";
 
+import Tooltip from "@/components/ui/tooltip";
 import { QuestionWithForecasts } from "@/types/question";
 import cn from "@/utils/core/cn";
 
@@ -34,6 +39,21 @@ type Props = {
   itemClassName?: string;
 };
 
+/**
+ * Returns the max attainable peer coverage (0–1) for a question that resolved
+ * before its scheduled close time, or null if not applicable.
+ */
+const getMaxCoverage = (question: QuestionWithForecasts): number | null => {
+  const { open_time, actual_close_time, scheduled_close_time } = question;
+  if (!open_time || !actual_close_time || !scheduled_close_time) return null;
+  const open = new Date(open_time).getTime();
+  const actualClose = new Date(actual_close_time).getTime();
+  const scheduledClose = new Date(scheduled_close_time).getTime();
+  const totalDuration = scheduledClose - open;
+  if (totalDuration <= 0) return null;
+  return (actualClose - open) / totalDuration;
+};
+
 export const ParticipationSummary: React.FC<Props> = ({
   question,
   forecastsCount,
@@ -91,6 +111,38 @@ export const ParticipationSummary: React.FC<Props> = ({
     </span>
   );
 
+  // Only peer coverage (non-spot) is affected by early resolution.
+  const maxCoverage = isSpot ? null : getMaxCoverage(question);
+  const richMaxCoverageDisplay = (_chunks: ReactNode) => {
+    if (maxCoverage === null) return null;
+    return (
+      <span>
+        {" (max. "}
+        {Math.round(maxCoverage * 100)}%
+        <Tooltip
+          tooltipContent={t.rich("maxAttainableCoverageExplanation", {
+            link: (chunks) => (
+              <a
+                href="https://www.metaculus.com/help/scores-faq/#score-truncation"
+                target="_blank"
+                rel="noopener noreferrer"
+                className="underline"
+              >
+                {chunks}
+              </a>
+            ),
+          })}
+        >
+          <FontAwesomeIcon
+            icon={faCircleInfo}
+            className="ml-0.5 cursor-help text-blue-500 dark:text-blue-500-dark"
+          />
+        </Tooltip>
+        {")"}
+      </span>
+    );
+  };
+
   return (
     <div className={cn("flex flex-col gap-2", className)}>
       <ParticipationItem
@@ -115,6 +167,7 @@ export const ParticipationSummary: React.FC<Props> = ({
             strong: richStrong,
             userCoverage: Math.round(userCoverage * 100),
             averageCoverage: Math.round(averageCoverage * 100),
+            maxCoverageDisplay: richMaxCoverageDisplay,
           }
         )}
       </ParticipationItem>

front_end/src/components/question/score_card.tsx

@@ -466,8 +466,6 @@ export default function ScoreCard({
   const t = useTranslations();
   const isSpot = type.includes("spot");
 
-  console.log("isSpot", isSpot, type);
-
   if (type.includes("peer")) {
     return (
       <PeerScoreCard